Zone of Interest Best Picture, and another vote for Sandra Hüller for Best Actress. This ballot article is relatively mild compared to the more acerbic from yesteryear, but some surprising choices. Again, both adapted and original screenplay are a mess. No alignment. Member of Academy’s Short Film and Feature Animation branch.
Offsite Link| by Anonymous | reply 11 | February 29, 2024 11:51 PM |
Sandra is gonna be the big surprise win. Her giving two great performances this year—so voters can compare and contrast—but only being nominated for one is gonna help push her over the finish line.
| by Anonymous | reply 1 | February 28, 2024 1:07 PM |
The Zone of Interest seems to be gaining momentum for Best Picture, but I suspect the fact that it's also up for Best International Feature will allow voters to reward it with a win in that lesser category instead (possibly along with Best Sound) and leave Oppenheimer with the predictable Best Picture win.
| by Anonymous | reply 2 | February 28, 2024 3:03 PM |
The Sandra Huller push seems like the biggest piece of wishful thinking imaginable. I've been hearing "she has momentum!" for months now, without any actual evidence of it.
Did she sweep the major critics' prizes? Nope, no one dominated the Actress category this year. Did she win the Globe? No, she lost even though they really liked Anatomy of a Fall. What about BAFTA? She lost that, too, even though she was double-nominated there and BAFTA voters really liked both of her films. And she wasn't even nominated at SAG, and in thirty years no person who won a Lead Acting Oscar ever missed out with that branch.
So we should believe that a middle-aged German actress who is basically unknown in America and doesn't have a role that traditionally wins Oscars is going is suddenly going to beat the two actresses who have been splitting the major precursor awards because a few anonymous voters sing her praises? Seriously?
It's not happening.
| by Anonymous | reply 3 | February 28, 2024 3:39 PM |
So the anonymous voter is going with all the safe woke choices. Got it. No surprise.
| by Anonymous | reply 4 | February 28, 2024 3:50 PM |
That would be great R1. She puts Emma Stone and that Lily thing to shame.
| by Anonymous | reply 5 | February 28, 2024 5:26 PM |
[quote]the two actresses who have been splitting the major precursor awards
The splitting is what could allow for Huller to slip in.
| by Anonymous | reply 6 | February 28, 2024 6:53 PM |
No, that's not how it works, R6. To have a split vote, there has to be a distinct voting bloc that the two choices could split. Gladstone and Stone don't share a voting bloc. They're two dissimilar performances in dissimilar movies.
People use the "split the vote" argument all the time, and it's almost always wrong.
| by Anonymous | reply 7 | February 28, 2024 7:07 PM |
Vote splitting can happen in any number of ways. For instance, Adrien Brody's win. It's not only about voting blocs, it can also mean that there are two front runners, neither of whom take enough to win in the end, allowing a dark horse to slip by them.
It's all just speculation anyway, since we never get to see the final counts.
| by Anonymous | reply 8 | February 28, 2024 7:15 PM |
Another Sandra ballot. I'm hoping that voters decide the nomination for Lily is reward enough, and put Sandra in there for two magnificent lead performances in one year.
Offsite Link| by Anonymous | reply 9 | February 29, 2024 5:52 PM |
She also is talked about in the second ballot at Goldderby. The voter said he chose Emma but Sandra was his second choice. Interesting.
| by Anonymous | reply 10 | February 29, 2024 11:49 PM |
I don't think there's a prayer of it happening but I really hope she wins. Lily Gladstone did nothing special and Emma's British accent was shit.
| by Anonymous | reply 11 | February 29, 2024 11:51 PM |
